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Halloween wasn't so scary after all

talessi@ariesfoundation.org

The projection was to spend a record 12.2 Billion (that's a lot of candy...)

    And it just might bode well for things going forward from here...


We told you last week that the S&P 500 had dipped into correction on Friday, 10/27. A seasonal run from the mid-year high on July 31 that pretty much went streaight downhill from there. The S&P 500 index with October's end just logged its longest monthly streak of declines since March 2020.
A look at traditional year-end seasonal patterns and a strong Halloween suggests that the tides could be turning. 
November has been the strongest month for stocks since 1950. The benchmark index has declined for the month just once in the past 11 years, in 2021. 
Things already look promising for the market, two trading days into November. The S&P 500 on Thursday climbed 1.9% to log its best one-day gain since April. 
Behind the rally? Investors seem optimistic that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates this year, after the central bank on Wednesday paused for a second consecutive meeting, leaving the benchmark lending rate at its highest level in more than 22 years. 
Right now the projection is roughly 80% expectation that the Fed will hold rates steady again at its December policy meeting.
Also helping stocks run higher is a slide in bond yields after the Fed hit the pause button. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury note fell on Thursday to 4.67%, compared to Wednesday’s close of 4.79%, well below the key 5% level it breached last month. Weaker oil prices — down about 3% this week — may be another supportive factor. 
Seasonal patterns bode well beyond this month as the S&P 500 has gained an average 6.7% from November to April since 1990 (for more on this you can check-out our Youtube Channel '
Sell in May & Go Away" episode).
Of course, history is merely a guide, not a crystal ball into the future.
 The S&P 500 closed on Friday at 4,358. 
Where do you think we'll be at the end of the year?
You can't get a second opinion from the person who set up your plan: Sometimes it helps to have a different perspective on things.

 

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